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The per capita water demand of a small town having population census records indicated in Table 1, is given by 9 = 150 – 99.6 9.0 where, q = per capita demand [1/c/d] t is time in years starting from 1985. Table 1 Population census records Year 1985 1995 2005 Population 5000 7500 9480 Moreover, from historical water usage data the peaking factors for maximum day and peak hour water demands are estimated to be 175% and 250% of the average day demand, respectively. Determine a The design capacity of a treatment plant if it is to serve the town until the end of 2020. b. The design capacity of the distribution main Use the decreasing rate of increase method for population forecasting and assume a fire demand of 3 m/min.
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The per capita water demand of a small town having population census records indicated in Table 1, is given by 9 = 150 – 99.6 9.0 where, q = per capita demand [1/c/d] t is time in years starting from 1985. Table 1 Population census records Year 1985 1995 2005 Population 5000 7500 9480 Moreover, from historical water usage data the peaking factors for maximum day and peak hour water demands are estimated to be 175% and 250% of the average day demand, respectively. Determine a The design capacity of a treatment plant if it is to serve the town until the end of 2020. b. The design capacity of the distribution main Use the decreasing rate of increase method for population forecasting and assume a fire demand of 3 m/min.
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SOLUTION
Decreasing Rate of Increase Method
Year: 1985
Population: 5000
Increase:
Percentage Increment:
Incremental Increase:
Decrease in Percentage Increment:
Year: 1995
Population: 7500
Increase: 2500
Percentage Increment: Fifty
Incremental Increase:
Decrease in Percentage Increment:
Year: 2005
Population: 9480
Increase: 1980
Percentage Increment: Twenty-six point four
Incremental Increase:
Decrease in Percentage Increment:
Total: 4480
Average: 4480 divided by 2 equals 2240
Result: 2240 divided by 58 equals Thirty-eight point two
Year: 2015
Average Increment per Decade: Thirty-eight point two
Average Rate of Decrease in the Increment: Twenty-three point six
Net Increment Rate (percentage): Fourteen point six
Year: 2020
Average Increment per Decade: Fourteen point six
Average Rate of Decrease in the Increment: Twenty-three point six
Net Increment Rate (percentage): Negative nine
Hence the population at the end of each decade will be as follows:
For 2015:
9480 plus fourteen point six percent of 9480 equals 10864 point zero four
For 2020:
10864 point zero four minus nine percent of 10864 point zero four equals 9886 point two eight
Note: The number of years is indicated as approximately fifty-four years.